General Forum

What are people's thoughts? I know it is a little bit like predicting lottery numbers! I still find it shocking to see how high prices have gone since COVID! I thought the economy was supposed to be suffering!?

No, they won't. Just like anything else, there are ebbs and flows. One thing that I do think is here to stay is the ridiculous prices of new boxes and "star" rookies (star in quotes because often they haven't even taken the professional or top league stage yet). Trends are everything now, and with social media now being what it is, the fear of being left out will drive prices for the hot new rookies, or the absolute very best players in their respective sports. (Lebron James, Mike Trout, Patrick Mahomes, etc.) The group think mentality, the necessity to have the new hot thing, and group breakers will make the newest products far too expensive for about a month, before they drop to a more reasonable price (2020 Topps Update baseball is a prime example)

Now will the prices, even for the exception I listed above, stay this ridiculous. No, I don't think so. There were (are) many people with disposable income who had a lot more time on their hands during the pandemic, with nothing better to do. That, plus the natural gambling draw of new products for the younger generation, led to a resurgence in the market. Once the pandemic dies down for good, expect prices to start slowly dropping. I would wager in about a year and a half to two years from now we'll see prices more or less back to where they were in 2019, perhaps even lower. 

Edit: I'm going to make a hell of an old geezer someday if I'm already referring toy generation as the "younger generation" at age 22 lol. 

they will only stay high if buyers continue to pay for crazy prices. I think as time passes hopefully by spring, people will be more engaged in other activities to distract. I do know, as mentioned above, the price on hobby boxes are crazy. My local store has also been limited by the manufactor on what he can purchase from them. Where he used to get 10-15 boxes or 2 or 3 cases, now a few boxes or maybe 1 case.

This, i think, is drving the "breaks" market to new high. If someone wants to invest a couple thousand on a case and do good breaks, the returns are there. With that, people bidding on certain players or teams are increasing. Its all give and take i guess. Pay $500 for a box with less than 10 cards in hopes you come across something in your collection or bid on your team/player in a break up to a $50 to over $100 at times in hopes again for your team/player and if not? then what, bid again on another break with hopes or just break down and pay for an overpriced item that an individual is selling. Base/Common cards won't have as much of a problem, but higher end MFR's products are out of control-and the sad thing is in my opinion, Panini sees this and will continue to raise prices until they crash.  who knows.

I think it will depend on how much the big distributors like Topps and Panini can resist another wave of over production. Right now the market is hot and crazy, but there is also an increased supply of investors speculating in it. With companies starting to sell fractional ownership of investment grade cards and holding them in stock portfolios as long-term assets, I expect the higher prices to "stick" more than a hobbyist such as myself would prefer. However, if the manufacturers get crazy and just crank out the cards next year, it is going to tank the value of base cards again and eventually crater the market.

Good grief, at the moment, if you bought hobby boxes online through Steel City or Blowout Cards and just sold every single hit (relic and autograph) online at auction, you could practically sustain your own base card collections for "free." Surely that's not long-term sustainable ... right?

I think newer stuff will and does go down eventually. Though 75' and older in High grades 7 - 10 will probably hold and in the scarcer sets and grades still have some room for growth.

I think so long as the supply & demand imbalance exists the prices will stay high.  They could still go up further yet.  That said, it may be 10 months or 10 years, but eventually the investor crowd will find something else to throw their money at.  That will drop the demand significantly.  And if the card companies increase production, that will of course increase supply.

I don't think things will crash quite as badly as the 90s, and some players cards will still be worth *something* provided they reach their potential (eg the Lukas & Mahomes of the world), but perhaps the lower end will drop off quite a bit, and no doubt some players cards are just going to completely crater because there's almost no way they will ever play up to their current valuations.  If there's virtually no demand, the cards won't be worth anything.

Yes the economy is suffering.  The overwhelming majority of people who lost jobs are low income earners, who probalby were never buying the high end stuff in the first place.  

(and just to be clear, the stock market is a factor in judging an economy it is not the sole indicator of the health of an economy)

I watched a video interviewing the lady overseeing collectibles on Ebay. Basketball card sales up almost 400%, soccer 300%, baseball 100% and football just under 100%. She mentioned pokemon too but didn't offer the numbers. Nascar and hockey are probably the bottom feeders and I'd guess that younger people, investors and global buyers are buying basketball, soccer and pokemon. My hunch is that group would be chasing Mahomes, Murray, Tua and  Burrow over baseball too. But what do I know?

I actually got a pack of Bob Marley cards for Christmas.  I think it's safe to say they will stay high.

Please don't bogart those Marley's....pass them over here.