General Forum

Going all the way back to the 80s a players rookie card is the most sought after, for the most part. There are a few executions. 

I understand it's there 1st card or cards. But why does it hold so much more value over every other year of cards for that player? 

Why not the players best season or last card during their playing career.? Just seems there's a over fascination with rookie cards.

Over the last 25 years or so, rookie cards have often been moved to a short-printed tier and are tougher to collect than a base card, but for those players that would go on to become Hall of Famers, superstars, etc., the RCs usually commemorate the time that player joined the league, or the first time you could collect that player on a card if it wasn't their true rookie year, which makes them a little more special. You get McDavid's rookie, you have something from the time he joined the NHL. A card 5 years into his career, 10 years, possibly 15 in the future....those are great but won't be as special. Same reason why our moms love our kindergarten pics more than our 9th grade ones.

Your mom liked your pics?! Lucky!!!!

I think it has to do with a legacy perception of scarcity, and thus value.  It helps to think about the history of the hobby the way it was in 'the old days', unencumbered by today's practices.

Back in the 50's and 60's the major 'collectibles' were stamps and coins.  Baseball cards were toys.  Many kids would have a place of honor to display or store their favorite players' cards, in a cigar box, tacked to the headboard, etc.  Not many of them would have had a rookie as a favorite player, so into the bike spokes the cards of those nobodys went.

Now, fast-forward to the 1980's when trading cards not only became more 'collectible' than 'toy', but they became an investment as well.  Which cards were going up in value the most?  Cards of the stars of the previous decades.  Which cards of those stars were the hardest to find?  Those Rookie cards that had a significant portion of their original population destroyed / lost / thrown out before the player became popular.  That actual scarcity of the early rookie cards cemented the notion in our collective consciousness that 'rookie cards become more valuable than other cards'.

That notion became generally perceived as fact and the underlying reasons forgotten; so few people pay attention when the situation changes.  In the past, rookie cards went up in value more than other cards, so in the future rookie cards will keep doing the same, right?  More rookie cards get saved because of their perceived value, and now they are just as common as any other card. (Until the manufacturers start playing with SPs and manufacturing rarity.)

Simple RC's mark the beginning of the player's career. Even if the card does not come out until later in their career it is still a commemorative of the event. That is why traded update sets etc get designated XRC an not RC

I get the ask in the original post and personally agree that the infatuation with rookie cards is over blown causing this weird premium. In the end, price is about supply and demand and the hobby has built a huge demand on rookie cards that probably won’t change. 

I'd also add that card collecting constitutes a form of investing; one that takes place in a very active and liquid market. Any form of investing that is even arguably efficient will take place via markets that operate such that investors experience directly correlated risk and reward. In other words, more risk should (on balance) yield more reward. If that is not the case, the market tends to collapse or fall out of favor eventually.

Rookie cards are issued at the beginning of a player's career, when information about their future exploits is almost entirely speculative. This speculation represents risk and should, in turn, represent greater reward, if and when the player performs well in the future. That elevated risk-reward profile is likely a key driver of demand for rookie cards.

P.S. I completely agree with what others have said about artificial supply constraints in modern collecting. My point is meant to cover all eras and relates to market behavior more generally.

I will add that personally I like a player’s last card. It gives me their most complete career statistics and (assuming they list individual years for their entire career) allows me to see their greatest seasons statistically as well as teams they played with. My individual preference isn’t going to change the market though.

Add the fact that many rookies in the NFL and MLB had to sit a couple years before their careers even started.  By then many of their previous cards were in spokes, lost, etc.  Some (Joe Montana) didn’t even get a card until they had played.  As salaries went up and teams gave more emphasis on playing rc’s sooner the hobby followed.  When I think about it, how many QB’s sat for even a year in the kast twenty years.  Aaron Rogers, Mahomes, Love… not many others.

 Definitely a speculation play for an investment ( either financially or that “I have it” ).  And for my favorite teams, this can be fun!

Beyond just the rarity and the value, I think there's an aspect of the gamble as well as a romanticism to rookie cards. Joe Posnanski talks a lot about rookie card collecting in his The Baseball 100 chapter on Bert Blyleven, but to summarize, rookie cards are all about potential. If I can get a bit flowery with my words for a moment, I'd like to elaborate. Rookies, from the hyped first pick of the draft to the big bonus international signing to the late draft guys that barely sneak in, they all have a chance to have an illustrious career. Being able to pick out a potential great before he becomes a superstar, before he leads his team to titles and amasses stats that boggle the mind and outshines all but a dozen or so other players of comparable ability, that's a hell of a bragging right. You, yes you, saw something that no one else saw (well, no one else if you ignore the scouts, the analytics guys, the high school and/or college coaches, and the team that drafted him). Isn't that a wonderful thing? The gambler sees the odds for any high school or college athlete to make it to the big leagues and stay there for an extended amount of time, and gets a thrill from it. The romantic wants to believe in the power of a great story, a kid who plays his way to greatness with an intoxicating cocktail of talent, skill, and grit. The rookie card is a seed, a recently excavated jewel, a masterpiece dimmed by grime and discolored varnish. All it takes is investment from those who believe.