2011 Topps Update Baseball Forum

At least with Trout, he has consistently played at an elite level so I could see some justification for the high price.  With Judge, his prices are 100% speculation.  Sure he has been killing it but it's only been half a season.  He is currently in a post-ASG slump (1 for 21 over the last 5 games) so only time will tell on him. 

Everything about RC cards is speculation initially. Sometimes, it holds for a few years. Sometimes it falls flat almost instantly. I have TONS of examples over the years. I'll only give 3 here.

#1 - In 2000, I pulled a Tom Brady UD Ultimate Victory RC card from a single pack I got for Christmas. I kept it b/c it was a Patriots card. At that time, the BV was $3. I expected that it would go down a bit as I didn't see him replacing Drew Bledsoe until Drew retired OR he would get traded away like all of the NE RC QB's before him over the previous many seasons. That card now has a BV of $100, even with an SN of 2000. Sometimes it pays off to hold something just b/c it's a player for a team you collect.

#2 - In 2006, I traded for a 2004 Donruss Elite Extra Edition Yadier Molina AU'd RC card SN1000. I can't even remember what I traded to get it. The BV then was $25 but I only wanted the card b/c he was an STL Cardinal then AND I saw him play live in Rookie-A ball. I was happy he made it to the big leagues but wasn't sure what would happen with him then since he was the 3rd catcher. Here we are today and he's a sure-fire HOFer and the card has a BV of $100. I guarantee that whatever I traded b/c it was hot then isn't worth that much today.

#3 - In 2009, I pulled a Buster Posey UD Icons AU'd RC card (don't remember the SN right now). I quickly traded it when I was offered a NM/MT 1979 Topps Ozzie Smith RC card. That was my white whale card, so I didn't care what happened with Posey and his career, I wanted that Ozzie card! Here we are now and the Posey books for $30, while my Ozzie RC went up a bit in value (to $90). If it wasn't for the speculation that Posey would be spectacular, I wouldn't have my favorite Ozzie card in my collection without paying quite a bit for one! That trade really could have gone either way value-wise. The Posey had a higher value at the time than the Ozzie RC did. If Posey hadn't gotten hurt so much after a couple of years, that card could be worth way more than it was then.

Look back at Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. Their RC and AU'd cards were through the roof when the cards first came out. I remember people paying thousands of dollars for 1/1's that weren't even AU'd or MEM cards. Now, those people are stuck with those cards that they will never get an offer that's even close to what they spent to own them or try to flip them. I NEVER speculate about current or future values! If an athlete's cards are selling for hundreds or thousands of dollars after they've been a Pro for a few years, then there is a reason for it. If they haven't played a game or a season, it's definitely a long-shot that it'll ever be worth it!

You should see Aaron Judges RC there above the roof and out of the ball park his 2017 donruss Rated rookie card just hit $12,00.00 dollars.

I keep waiting for the bubble to pop on some of these over valued cards and they just keep going up.  I just don't get it.  And the Topps Update Trout card is the one that puzzles me the most.  I can understand it going for $50 or even $100 but over $1,000 as it's currently been selling, I'm just at a loss.
Is this the beanie baby of the current decade?  Bunch of paper millioniars who will find they have a bunch of nothing in another 5 to 10 years?