2021 Topps Baseball Forum

How is it that I can rip a Hobby and a Jumbo and not pull 1 SP?  Boggles the mind, truly. Schleprock must be my supplier. 

Are most of you getting SPs with a Hobby or Jumbo?

In my Jumbo I got lucky with a Base SP, 2 Gold SP's, & a Black SSP. The main thing is that they are never guaranteed on the box. It really is crazy how you did 2 boxes and not pull even one. I believe the Gold SP at the very least is 1:10 packs. If you are talking about a Base SP then it's more possible because they are 1:24 packs. Again I'll say I was very lucky. It may have seemed you got 2 bad boxes sadly.

Technically, the Golds and Blacks are parallels, and not considered SPs of the base set.

My bad Dan you are right. I was thinking an overall wise. In that case than it's fairly common to not pull a SP in a couple boxes. Though weird it's true knowing the odds of them being hit.

Yeah I was meaning the VARs specifically 

The card producers were doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Nothing spells out more clearly the increased production than the relative scarcity of numbered cards like Topps gold cards.

In 2018, gold parallels numbered to 2018 were seeded in hanger boxes 1:3.  2021 hanger boxes have printed odds at 1:6.

2 easy explanations for the concerns on this post:

1) Did you look at the pack odds of hitting a SP variation?  They fall one every 69 packs of hobby and one every 24 packs of jumbo.  So, they aren't in every box.  More like one every 2.5 boxes.

2) The gold parallel odds on hanger boxes don't show that they have increased production.  It shows that they are creating fewer hanger boxes and the cards are available in other products.  Hit rates have always been better in hobby boxes, and Topps is creating a bunch more of that and less retail product.  Topps has not increased production since 2018, of if they have it is a very slight increase.  They haven't been able to over the last year due to COVID restrictions in the work areas.  That doesn't mean that they won't increase when (if?) the world returns to normal.  The demand is insanely high right now, as we all know.

I picked hanger boxes because I had one of each of those handy in front of me, but the gold seeding in all products are drastically different odds today vs 2018.

Look at blaster boxes:
2018 (10 ten card packs per box) = 1:11 packs = .909 per blaster
2019 (7 fourteen card packs per box) = 1:8 packs = .875 per blaster
2020 (7 fourteen card packs per box) = 1:14 packs = .500 per blaster
2021 (7 fourteen card packs per box) = 1:27 packs = .259 per blaster

And hobby boxes:
2018 Topps Series 1 Hobby Box (36 ten card packs) = 1:18 packs = 2.000 per hobby box
2019 Topps Series 1 Hobby Box (24 fourteen card packs) = 1:5 packs = 4.800 per hobby box
2020 Topps Series 1 Hobby Box (24 fourteen card packs) = 1:14 packs = 1.714 per hobby box
2021 Topps Series 1 Hobby Box (24 fourteen card packs) = 1:27 packs = .888 per hobby box

You're still trying to tell me that they're shoving the gold cards into other packed configurations and keeping the production runs the same?   No way I say.

I get the odds, and I am within those parameters certainly, just bad luck!  

I opened a jumbo box and didn't get an SP, and I only got one gold card. I did complete the set.