I have literally overhauled everything about the original post. Some elements may be the same, but there are a bunch of new things about it. Heck, even my foreword is different. This has taken me over three days and 28 hours to research and write this 39 page piece. I hope that you like it.
Update 8 hours in: Well, you’d better appreciate this. I’ve been at this since 8 a.m. It is 4:08 pm as I am typing this and I still have 36 people + Bill Freehan Vs Simmons and Munson to go. This is going to be a while more.
Update 20 Hours in: You had better like this. I have worked 20 hours so far on this post. I am quite literally 5 players away from being done.
Update 26 Hours in: I have edited everyone, again. I added new statistics to the players as well.
If you want to see more analysis of players or on baseball history, please tell me. I am going to be posting another “post” (Really these are turning into articles) on people who were banned from baseball, then maybe one on steroid users and their careers. If those also go over well, I may as well make a blog and post similar things on it.
I am fully aware that my analysis of these players is flawed. Any statistical analysis is flawed. I have never seen any of these players on the field, so I cannot say that they were amazing to the onlooker from firsthand knowledge. The sources that I’m able to find, which are not numerous as I don’t have a large database, are what I have to go off of in that regard. So, if a player is way better than the statistics say that they are, I wouldn’t know. I know that I have at least one such case here, due to the enormous number of players that I analyzed, so if anyone has anything to say about that, please do.
I am making this post to:
1) List MLB players who shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame that are there as of October 2021 based on a (Almost completely) statistical perspective. Mostly through the back of baseball card stats (WAR, BA, HR, etc.) but with some newer stats (ERA+, FA above league, etc.)
2) List people who have been passed by in getting into the Hall of Fame. (No eligible players on the ballot. They still have a good shot of making it. Also players that actually qualify for the Hall (11+ seasons). I got a few people suggesting players like Bob Caruthers who played for (I believe) 6 seasons in the Majors.
3) Allow people to add to these lists or argue against my claims.
This Post is basically a full on Bill James article, but not made by Bill but made by me. If you’re into that sort of thing, read on. If you just want to see the lists of people, look just under where it says “Players that Should/Shouldn’t be in Cooperstown.” If you don’t want to see either of these things, why did you click this post?
If you’re still with me, get ready to read. I hope that I’m not too confusing.
First, I would like to tell you that this is going to be a long post. It's basically an article at this point. Two quick things to mention before you start reading this insanity, One I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL STATISTICIAN NOR AM I A BASEBALL HISTORIAN. I AM A LONGTIME BASEBALL FAN WHO LIKES STATISTICS. IF YOU DISAGREE WITH ANYTHING THAT I SAY, THAT IS FINE. THIS IS AN ANALYSIS OF BASEBALL PLAYERS WHO I HAVE NEVER SEEN PLAY. IF ANY OF YOU HAVE SEEN ANY OF THESE GUYS PLAY, PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU SAW IN THEM THAT MADE YOU GO ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
Second, I have a personal way of dealing with WAR. WAR is Wins Above Replacement. Basically it is a measurement of how good a player was in a given year. Due to how WAR is calculated, there are some people who have 40+ WAR due to long careers and people with 13 WAR due to short ones. What I do is I calculate the average WAR per season. So if someone has say a 23 WAR in 11 seasons and someone else has a 23 WAR in 23 seasons, the first player’s average WAR per season (WARPS) would be 2.09, while the second player’s WARPS would be 1. Clearly, the first player was better in terms of WAR than the second, which is not evident if you’re just looking at straight WAR. This also helps adjust for most fluke seasons. We’ll set the expected Hall of Fame WARPS to a person we know should be in the Hall of Fame, but isn’t a Hank Aaron or Babe Ruth. That would be comparing apples to pieces of granite. We’ll set it to Lou Brock’s (May he rest in peace) WARPS. We can agree that he belongs in the Hall of Fame, but isn’t the best or the worst Hall of Famer. His WARPS is 2.27. This is a good number.
WAR is calculated by this formula: WAR = (Batting Runs + Baserunning Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
Yes. It’s more complicated than it seems, because you have to do a lot of sub-calculations to get each part of the equation, but basically what it does is measure how good a player is in a given season. A 5-6 WAR season is that of a Superstar and 2-3 is that of an average starter. What WARPS calculates is how each player averaged over their career, with the bad seasons and the great ones. A Hall of Famer usually ranges from around 2.27 WARPS (Lou Brock’s is actually one of the lowest, go figure) to Babe Ruth’s 8.31.
WARPS and WAR is definitely not the end-all-be-all, but it is a useful and comprehensive stat that can encompass entire seasons to tell you how good, compared to the league at the time, that player did.
So, with that out of the way, on to the analyses.
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Players that Shouldn’t be in Cooperstown that are Enshrined Right Now
1. Harold Baines
WARPS-1.76 (Standard-2.27)
Harold Baines was a DH-Rightfielder for the White Sox, Athletics, Rangers, Orioles, and Indians (Now Guardians, I still can't get over how weird it is saying that, much like the Washington Football Team). He played from 1980 to 2001. He was a 6 time All Star (1985-1987, 1989, 1991, and 1999) and won one Silver Slugger (1989).
Harold Baines was a very good player. He constantly was putting up a .300+ Batting average with a 100+ OPS+. He ended his career with almost 2900 hits, 1300 runs, 400 home runs, and a career OPS+ of 121. A very good player indeed. My problem is that from 1990 onward, he was a DH. He had no defensive value from 1990 onward. You can compensate for that by being a good hitter, and he was a good hitter, but good isn't Hall of Fame caliber. He got these great counting stats by being an above average hitter for his entire career. He never really had an extremely good season, and scored very few runs for a 22 year career. A very good player. Not a hall of famer.
2. Rabbit Maranville
WARPS-1.9 (Standard-2.27)
Rabbit Maranville was a Shortstop/Second Baseman who played with the Boston Braves, Pirates, Saint Louis Browns, Cubs, and St. Louis Cardinals. He played from 1914-1933 and in 1935.
Rabbit Maranville was a character. He was larger than life. He was the Ozzie Smith of his time as a defensive player. He was also constantly getting arrested for numerous things, though not murder. He once got arrested for fishing in a drainage spout. You can assume that he was a bit tipsy at the time, but this is but one of many offenses, like getting arrested for taking part in a foreign military parade in that country, dressed in uniform. You can tell by those two instances that this guy was strange. He may have been a defensive wizard as he has basically the same defensive WAR as his offensive WAR, and offensive WAR is a lot easier to get than defensive WAR. The problem is, he was basically a slightly better Rafael Belliard at the plate. He would get a lot of singles, not drive in many runs, and hit basically no homers (career high was 5.) So, he was a singles hitter who hit for a low average (.258), who lived off of his excellent defense. Not a bad player to any capacity, but definitely not a Hall of Fame caliber complete player.
3. George Kelly
WARPS-1.6 (Standard-2.27)
George “High Pockets” Kelly was a 1B-2B-OF that played for the NY Giants, Pirates, Reds, and Cubs from 1915-1930 and 1932.
George Kelly is regarded as the worst player ever elected to the Hall of Fame. He was basically an average hitter and defender for the time that hit close to .300 with about 1800 hits. He is by no means a Hall of Fame talent. He is a strictly “good” player. There is nothing special about his statistics, except that he averaged 100 hits per year. The only reason that he got elected was because the Veterans Committee at the time had a couple old teammates, a couple old managers, and a couple reporters that covered him in his glory years. He has no business being in Cooperstown.
4. Ray Schalk
WARPS-1.8 (Standard-2.27)
Ray Schalk was a catcher for the White Sox and Giants from 1912-1929.
Ray Schalk is an interesting case. He was on the White Sox when the Black Sox Scandal happened, and was proven innocent (He hit .304 in that postseason, he’s looking pretty innocent, though Joe Jackson hit .375 and was found guilty. I don’t see how that works). His hitting stats are below average, like a 83 career OPS+, a .656 career OPS and a .253 batting average, and his defensive stats are good. So, he basically was a very good catcher in terms of fielding, and not hitting. Not a Hall of Famer.
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Players that Should Be in Cooperstown
1. Gil Hodges
WARPS-2.43 (Standard-2.27)
Gil Hodges played for the Brooklyn/LA Dodgers and the NY Mets from 1943, 1947-1963. He was a 3 time Gold Glove winner (1957-1959) and an 8 time All Star (1949-1955, 1957).
Gil Hodges could do it all. He could hit, he could defend, and he could manage. He played 18 years with the Dodgers (Brooklyn and LA), and the Mets as a 1B-OF for the Dodgers and a Manager for the Mets. He was the architect of the Mets’ 1969 Miracle Season. His numerous accolades include 3 gold gloves and 8 All Star nods.
Gil Hodges has been overlooked by many because of his .273 batting average and 1921 hits in 18 seasons. He, though, was a great hitter, averaging 20 home runs a year, and being a great defensive player. He also has a career 120 OPS+ and an OPS of .846. Sadly, he lost 1944-1946 due to military service, but he played from 1943, 1947-1963 at this level anyway. It’s a shame that he lost 3 of his years to service. He might’ve been voted in as a Hall of Fame player had he played then.
2. Thurman Munson
WARPS-4.19! (Standard-2.17)
Thurman Munson was a Yankee from 1969-1979. He was the AL MVP of the 1976 season, he was a 3 time Gold Glove winner (1972-1975), and a 7 time All Star (1971, 1973-1978).
Why is Thurman Munson not in the Hall of Fame? In only 11 seasons with the Yankees, he racked up a 46.1 WAR, batting .292 with 1558 hits. He got 7 All Star nods in total, only one less than Gil Hodges (See above). On top of being an offensive powerhouse (.756 OPS, 116 OPS+), he earned 3 gold gloves. He was a complete player. Sadly, his career was cut short due to his death in a plane crash, so he could have gotten more hits, but I would think that his batting average would fall, as he missed, by dying, his regressing years. He was one of the best catches of the 1970s, up there with Bench and FIsk.
3. Bill Freehan
WARPS-2.99 (Standard-2.17)
Bill Freehan was a Detroit Tiger from 1961, 1963-1976. He was an 11 time All Star (1964-1973, 1975) and a 5 time Gold Glove winner (1965-1969).
Bill Freehan was a catcher whose career mostly fell into the 1960s, the era dominated by pitchers. As a result, batters saw any hitting production go a long way. Bill was a Tigers catcher for 15 years, 11 of which he played in the All Star Game. He also earned 5 Gold Gloves, as well as a World Series Ring in 1968. Despite hitting only .262 and hitting only 200 home runs in his entire career, he was a great hitter, with an OPS of .752 and an OPS+ of 112. Playing in the 1960s made his numbers the way that they are, and not many people can get past that.
I may be a bit biased on this one, being a Tigers fan and all, but this guy is genuinely one of the best catchers to ever play the position.
4.Minnie Miñoso
WARPS-2.69 (Standard-2.17)
Minnie Miñoso was an outfielder who played for the White Sox, Indians, New York Cubans (NNL), Cardinals, and Washington Senators (Now Texas Rangers) from 1946-1949, 1951-1964, 1976, and 1980. He was a 4 time NNL All Star (2 in 1947, 2 in 1948), a 9 time MLB All Star (1951-1954, 1957, 2 in 1959, and 2 in 1960), and a 3 time Gold Glove winner (1957, 1959, and 1960).
Minnie mostly played for the White Sox across his 20 year career which spanned five decades. This 13 time All Star and 3 time Gold Glove winner has all of the nice counting statistics, a .300 batting average, 2000 hits, an OPS+ of 130, and an OPS of .848. He also spent three years in the Negro Leagues. We can’t really count those, because they didn’t keep track of stats very well in those times for those leagues, but for the time that he played in the MLB, Minnie Miñoso was one of the greats.
5. Dale Murphy
WARPS-2.58 (Standard-2.27)
Dale Murphy was an outfielder for the Atlanta Braves, Phillies, and Rockies from 1976-1993. He was a 2 time NL MVP (1982, 1983), a 5 time Gold Glove winner (1982-1986), a 7 time All Star (1980, 1982-1987), and a 4 time Silver Slugger (1982-1986)
Dale Murphy was the face of the Braves for the 1970s to 1989. He was a star. He was a 2 time league MVP, 7 time All Star, 4 time Silver Slugger, and 5 time Gold Glover. Just this alone should get him into the hall of fame. But no, there’s more! He ended his career with 2111 hits, 398 Home Runs, an OPS of .815 and an OPS+ of 121.
This guy is actually very similar to Harold Baines on how he got his stats. He got his stats through consistency, but, unlike Baines, he had some really amazing (140 OPS+/6-7 WAR/36 HR) seasons that turned into MVP awards. He also had the consistency to get 7 All Star nods. Because of this, I think that Dale Murphy is on the wrong side of the Hall of Fame line.
6. Joe Jackson
WARPS- 4.78 (Standard-2.27)
Now this one is debatable. We still don’t know if Joe was in on the 1919 series fix. He hit .375 in the series and claimed that he was innocent. He was illiterate and, well, may not have been in on the fix for that reason alone. He was not smart to put it bluntly. But boy could he play ball. He still holds the second highest batting average of all time. Had he not been banned from baseball, he may have gotten into the 3,000 hit club and cemented his legacy as one of the greatest hitters of all time. Instead, his reputation is tarnished by one of the darkest moments in baseball.
I will probably be discussing Joe Jackson in more depth in a later post.
7. Fred McGriff
WARPS-2.77 (Standard-2.27)
Fred McGriff played for the Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers and Devil Rays from 1986 to 2004. He was a 5 time All Star (1992, 1994-1996, 2000) and 3 time Silver Slugger (1989, 1991, 1992).
The Crime Dog. This man was a hitting machine. He retired with 493 home runs to his name, as well as almost 2500 hits. This 5 time All Star and 3 time Silver Slugger was one of the most successful hitters of the 90s. His 1994 season was on pace to record 51 home runs when the strike ended the season. His career .886 OPS and 134 OPS+ only add to a prolific hitting resumé. This guy is really borderline for me. He is a Harold Baines type player (There he is again), in that he got his great hitting stats through being good consistently. I will give him his impressive Home Run totals, but for a guy who played 19 years, I would want him to drive in more than 1347 runs. Despite his big home run numbers, he wasn’t a large offensive force. I could easily be swayed one way or another for this one.
8. Ron Guidry
WARPS- 3.41 (Standard-2.27)
Ron Guidry was a Pitcher who played for the Yankees from 1975-1988. He was a 5 time Gold Glove winner (1982-1986), a 4 time All Star (1977, 1978, 1981, 1982) and won the Cy Young award in 1978.
Frankly, his career is similar to that of Sandy Koufax. They have similar winning percentages, Games Started, Innings Pitched, and WAR. Ron just has a higher ERA than Sandy and 600 less strikeouts, which is because of the difference in Eras that they pitched in. Ron Guidry was the Sandy Koufax of the late 1970s to late 1980s.
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So, from the first iteration of this post, I got comments on who I forgot. I’ve included them all here, as well as my opinion one way or the other.
Your Suggestions that I believe Should be in Cooperstown
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1. Don Mattingly
WARPS-3.02 (Standard-2.27)
Don Mattingly played for the Yankees from 1982-1995. As a player, he was a 6 time All Star (1984-1989), a 9 time Gold Glove winner (1985-1989, 1991-1994), and a 3 time Silver Slugger (1985-1987).
Don Mattingly was a great player, one of the best in baseball, from 1985-1989. He put up MVP-like seasons during that time and one an MVP in 1985. His 1986 campaign was arguably better, where he hit .352 with 238 hits, 53 doubles, 31 HR, 145 RBI, and had a .967 OPS and 161 OPS+ respectively. Had he stayed at that level, he would have been one of the top 10 best players ever. Sadly, injuries prevented him from ever getting that production level again. He ended his career with a .307 AVG, 2307 hits, a .830 OPS and a 127 OPS+. All in all, I think that he is on the right side of the Hall of Fame line. He never lived up to his 1986 campaign, true, but his career statistics and achievements give him enough ammunition to get into Cooperstown.
2. Keith Hernandez
WARPS-3.54 (Standard-2.27)
Keith Hernandez was a first baseman for the Cardinals, Mets, and Indians from 1973-1990. He won 1 MVP award in 1979, 11 Gold Glovers (1978-1983, 1984-1988), 5 All Star nods (1979, 1980, 1984, 1986, 1987), and was a two time Silver Slugger (1980 and 1984).
Keith Hernandez was one of the best defensive first baseman ever. His 11 Gold Gloves speak to that. On top of being one of the best defensive first basemen ever, he could hit. He had a career .296 batting average, 2182 hits, an OPS of .821, and an OPS+ of 128. He also won a batting title in 1979. So, he has the stats to be in the Hall, why is he not there?
Keith Hernandez admitted to coke usage up to 1983. That’s ten years of his career. The MLB is very stingy on illegal drug usage, so he’s been kept out of the Hall because of that. Maybe in the coming years, if coke ever becomes legal, he’ll be instated. Until then, he’s out.
3. Pete Rose
WARPS-3.32 (Standard-2.27)
Charlie Hustle was an outfielder and Player-Manager who played with the Reds, Expos (Now Nationals), and Phillies from 1963-1986. He was a 17 time All Star (1965-1971, 1973-1982, 1985), 1973 NL MVP, 1981 Silver Slugger, and 2 time Gold Glove winner (1969, 1970).Pete Rose is most remembered for being the hit king. There is no doubt that he deserves to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Heck, he probably WILL be in the Hall of Fame within a few years. Why? Sports Gambling is legal now in many places. MLB is now even partnering with sports betting sites. He may be in the Hall within the next few years.
4. Bobby Grich
WARPS-4.17 (Standard-2.27)
Bobby Grich was a 2B that played for the Angels and Orioles from 1970-1986. He was a 6 time All Star (1972, 1974, 1976, 1979, 1980, 1982), 1981 Silver Slugger, and a 4 time Gold Glove winner (1973-1976).
Bobby Grich is a Hall of Fame player. Change my mind. Despite having a .266 AVG, he has an OPS+ of 125, making him 25% better than the average hitter. He ended his career with 1833 hits, 224 HR, and a .794 OPS. Despite the average-looking hitting stats, this guy was an amazing defensive player. Most players have a below 1 dWAR. This guy has a dWAR of 16.8. He definitely should be in the Hall.
5. Charlie Comiskey - Black Sox Scandal
For more information on him, go here: https://sabr.org/research/article/how-cheap-was-charles-comiskey-salaries-and-the-black-sox/
Despite the myths surrounding the Black Sox Scandal, Charlie Comiskey did not drive his players to conspire with gamblers. They were the most paid team of the AL at the time (Yes, over the Yankees). He may have been a bad person to be around, but he definitely does deserve to be in the Hall.
6. Alan Trammell
WARPS-3.54 (Standard-2.27)
Alan Trammell was a Tiger from 1977-1996. He won 4 Gold Gloves (1983, 1984, 1987, 1988) , 6 All Star nods
(1979, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1990) , and 3 Silver Sluggers (1987, 1988, 1990).
Alan Trammell was half of one of the most iconic double-play combos in history. He was a rather good fielder (.977 to the league’s .967) as well as being a great hitter (2365 hits, 110 OPS+, .760 OPS). He is and should be a Hall of Famer.
7. Carlos Delgado
WARPS-2.61 (Standard-2.27)
Carlos Delgado was a 1B who played for the Blue Jays, Mets, and Marlins from 1993-2009. He is a 2 time All Star (2000 and 2003) and 3 time Silver Slugger.
Carlos Delgado was good at hitting Home Runs. He hit 473 in his 17 year career. He also was good at regular hits, getting the ball in play 2038 times in his career. With a 138 OPS+ and .929 OPS, he was an amazing hitter. The problem is, he was one of many. His career was in the 1990s, where everyone was hitting 30+ homers. They were also juicing. Carlos is one of the few that are believed to have not juiced. This makes his numbers actually impressive. He should be in the Hall.