I have collected Topps since 2007. I can't put my finger on when it changed, but I've started noticing around 2016-2017 range that flagship hobby/jumbo boxes are VERY hit or miss. Like, in terms of inserts, you either get nothing, or you hit a jackpot. I'm not usually too concerned because I like to hand collect the base set (I'm old school in that regard), and I view anything else that can be sold as a "discount" or trade material. Most of my boxes since that time have been garbage, but there are two that stick out: a 2018 Series 1 box, and particularly a Topps Series 1 jumbo I opened yesterday.
Back in 2018, I opened a hobby box of series 1 I believe, and in the same pack, back to back cards, I pulled a Noah Syndergard patch auto /25, and a Bryce Harper independence day /76. The rest of the box was really good too. I don't remember what all else it was, but I remember it was really strong.
Okay, now let's talk about the box I opened yesterday... wow. I pulled a Mike Trout rainbow foil parallel and an independence day parallel...
And neither cracked the top 5 best cards. Usually, those would be the best cards I'd pull in a box like this. Now, when I give the pack odds for each of the following ranked cards, remember that there are only 10 packs in a jumbo box. I am ranking in reverse order:
7. Ryan Presley Independence Day parallel (#/76) -- 1:89 packs
6. Mike Trout Rainbow Foil -- 1:2 packs
5. Hunter Green 2nd year Red Foilboard (#/199) -- 1:35 packs
4. Brett Baty RC Gold (#/2023) -- 1:4 packs
3. Nolan Gorman RC Orange Foilboard (#/299) -- 1:22 packs
Okay, let's stop there for a second. That is a whale of a box. I would have been thrilled with just these. I was hitting long odds after long odds to get these parallels, and they were seemingly all of desirable players/rookies. But then... I s*** you not, in one pack, back to back cards, I pull
1a: Adley Rustschman RC Gold (#/2023) -- 1:4 packs
1b: Walker Buehler Reverence Patch Auto (#/10) -- 1:1840 packs
So, why am I posting this? Admittedly, partly to brag. But more importantly, this brings up an issue I have had with Topps in recent years -- they, I believe, purposely and knowingly make these "hot boxes" to feed the feeling of hitting the jackpot and to feed the gambling nature the hobby has turned towards. I don't like that. I want there to be mid-tier boxes that, while maybe not enough to get your money back, you don't feel disgusted with yourself for not just spending $10-15 to buy the base set online, only to get some garbage inserts you'll never touch again. It seems it's all or nothing.
I can understand this for high end sets where people basically are gambling, but this is flagship we're talking about here. Can you not just actually randomly insert cards? Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I am completely and utterly convinced that Topps does not randomly insert cards anymore, but merely give the illusion they do.
This also has implications for normal collectors like me. Topps clearly has control over the fact that some boxes are loaded while the rest are garbage, what's to stop them from sending the biggest hits to the people who make them the most money? (i.e. breakers) Perhaps that's stretching the conspiracy a bit too far, but it's certainly plausible.
#COMMONCARDSMATTER
"The 0-2 pitch... SWING AND A MISS! Struck him out! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball!"
- RIP Harry Kalas